Interest in solar energy might have begun slowly as a possible alternative to fossil energy sources, but years of research and investment have turned the solar photovolatic industry into a multi-billion dollar interest now.
Fossil fuels are depleting and becoming costlier. Dependence on these fuels essentially means playing into the hands of a few countries.
In addition, there is the compulsion to reduce greenhouse gases. All these factors combined have turned global attention towards renewable energy sources and solar energy is an essential component of this. From a small beginning, the solar photovolatic (PV) or solar cell industry has already grown into a multi-billion one today. Developed countries, led by Europe, the US, and Japan, have embraced solar technologies in a big way and are funding lots of R&D in this area. India had been slow to take off, even though the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) launched a countrywide Solar PV Program almost two decades ago.
In recent years, with active government support, the solar PV industry has started showing an upward curve. The government has also set up the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited (IREDA) to promote, develop and extend financial assistance to renewable energy projects, which include the solar projects. The National Solar Mission has laid out an ambitious roadmap for India’s solar energy quest.
| India’s Power Stats |
| Power generated in 2007: 140,301 MW |
| Deficiency in power: 9-14% |
| Power requirement by 2012: 210 GW |
| Power requirement by 2032: 800 GW |
| Target from solar energy by 2012: 500 MW |
| Target from solar energy by 2017: 4,000 MW |
| Per capita consumption of power: 632 units |
| Per capita consumption worldwide: 2,516 units |
| Capacity of solar cells (2007): 45 MW |
| Capacity of solar PV modules (2007): 80 MW |
| PV products exported (2002-07): 225 MWp |
| Investment expected for PV manufacturing under Semiconductor Policy 2007: Rs. 66,394 crore for 2,170 MW |
Solar PV in India
Generation of power through solar PV is quite costly mainly because the costs of equipments are high. An IREDA spokesperson says, “For producing one mega watt [MW] through [a] solar plant, [the] investment required is almost Rs 18 to 20 crore. This is almost four to five times the investment required for producing 1 MW through thermal power plants.”
Under the National Solar Mission, the government aims to install solar generation capacity of 20,000 MW by 2020, 1,00,000 MW by 2030 and 2,00,000 MW by 2050. The government has estimated that the funding required for this will be anything between Rs 85,000 crore and Rs 105,000 crore. “The government is mulling to raise funds for the solar program to Rs 12,000 -15,000 crore under the 12th Five Year Plan,” says an IREDA official. The first phase (2009-12) of the mission focus is on scaling manufacturing of solar products to reduce costs. The target set under this phase is 100 MW. Commercial-scale solar utility plants is promoted under this program and it is being made mandatory to have solar rooftop PV applications in buildings and establishments of government and PSUs, hospitals, hotels, guest houses and nursing homes. Residential complexes with a minimum plot area of 500 sq m will also be included under this. In the second phase (2012-17), the mission will focus on commercial deployment of solar thermal power plants. Large-scale promotion of solar lighting and heating systems will be undertaken. Subsidies will cease to exist in this phase, though the government may provide micro-finance facilities. In the third phase (2017-20), the mission has set a target to achieve grid tariff parity and achieve an installed capacity of 20 GW by 2020. It also envisages to install 10 lakh rooftop systems with an average capacity of three kilowatts (kW) by 2020.
India has projected its demand for electricity to go up to 210 GW by 2012 and to 800 GW by 2032. There is already a shortage of 9 to 14%, but the government has set a target of providing power to all by 2012 with a minimum consumption of 1 kW per day per household.
MNRE has announced the Generation Based Incentive (GBI) Scheme to support a solar capacity of 50 MWp by 2012 (a solar PV system of 1 MWp produces 1 MW under ideal conditions). Under this scheme, the minimum installed capacity of solar PV power generation plants should be 1 MWp per plant. This capacity of 1 MWp may be set up as a single unit or through modular units at a single location. GBI is available for a maximum cumulative capacity of 10 MWp of grid-based solar PV power generation projects for any state. Any developer can, however, set up grid interactive projects of a maximum capacity of 5 MWp, either through a single project or multiple projects of a minimum capacity of 1 MWp each. The scheme guarantees an overall tariff of Rs 15 per kWh for solar PV, which consists of GBI and the preferential tariff offered by the state utility. The ministry has received Expressions of Interest for more than 1,000 MW of GBI projects. The MNRE is targeting a capacity of 500 MW through solar by 2012. The MNRE expects India’s solar capacity to touch 4 GW by 2017.
According to the 2008 annual report of India Semiconductor Association (ISA), which is compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), there were around 90 companies into solar PV manufacturing in India in 2007. Of these, nine manufacture solar cells and 19 manufacture PV modules. Another 60 companies were engaged in assembly and supply of solar PV systems. Almost all these are, at best, partially integrated, which proves that bulk of the value addition does not take place in India. Scaling and integration are, thus, two issues for Indian players.
| Investment Proposals Under Semiconductor Policy 2007 | |
| Company | Investment (Rs. crore) |
| KSK Surya | 3,211 |
| Lanco Solar | 12,938 |
| PV Technologies India | 6,000 |
| Phoenix Solar India | 1,200 |
| Reliance Industries | 11,631 |
| Signet Solar, Inc. | 9,672 |
| Solar Semiconductor | 11,821 |
| TF Solar Power | 2,348 |
| Tata BP Solar India | 1,692.8 |
| Titan Energy System | 5,880.58 |
| Source: India Infoline Ltd. | |
In 2007, the Government of India announced the Semiconductor Policy to encourage solar PV manufacturing. It offers a capital subsidy of 20% for manufacturing plants in SEZs and 25% for manufacturing plants outside SEZs. The subsidy is, however, on the condition that the investment is at least of Rs 1,000 crore. So far the government has received 12 applications from players like Reliance, Moser Baer, Lanco and Tata BP Solar. These will bring a combined investment of about Rs 66,394 crore. Reliance Industries is targeting an integrated 1 GW facility in India, while Moser Baer is in the process of commissioning a 200 MW thin film module plant that would produce the world’s largest non-flexible thin film modules.
According to the MNRE, almost 11 lakh solar PV-based systems had been installed by 2007. This includes 5.85 lakh solar lanterns, 3.64 lakh solar home lighting systems, 69,500 street lighting systems, 7,068 solar water pumps and 4.75 MWp of standalone and grid-interactive solar PV power plants. Potential market segments that have been identified as most lucrative in India include grid-interactive solar PV power plants, rural electrification through Decentralized Distributed Generation (DDG), backup power for telecom and roof-based solar PV. Under the “power for all” program, 18,000 remote villages would be electrified using non-conventional power sources. According to the ISA study, solar PV costs (Rs 145/Wp) at present is a far more attractive electrification option for a village than extending the grid by around 12 km or more. According to PwC, the potential for roof-based solar PV for future commercial space will increase from 130 MW in 2008 to 286 MW in 2012.
India is seen as a hub for low-cost manufacturing and production of solar PV modules. Despite low production levels, it exported over 60 MW of solar PV products in 2007. During 2002-07, India produced 335 MWp and exported 225 MWp of PV products.
The Punjab government has declared plans to set up solar power projects with an aggregate capacity of 25 MW by 2020. The state government has decided to forgo octroi on electricity generation and devices used for this. The state government has also decided to provide land at a nominal rent of Re. 1 per sq m for 33 years. Gujarat is going to see the world’s largest solar park as the Clinton Foundation has chosen the state for this. The capacity of this park is going to be between 3000 and 5000 MW.
The global scenario
According to the Earth Policy Institute, Washington DC, the five largest solar PV cell-producing countries globally in 2007 were Japan, China, Germany, Taiwan and the USA. Germany’s model has been hailed as something developing economies like India should emulate. It has adopted an innovative ‘Feed-in Tariff’ structure to create a readymade market for PV manufacturing as well. The rooftop program in Germany was a mega success after it was made mandatory on power utilities to purchase all available renewable energy-based power. Manufacturers are also encouraged to systematically reduce production costs and offer efficient products. Germany produces solar PV components across the value chain — silicon production (10,000 tons equivalent to 1,000 MW), wafer production (around 1,300 MW), solar cell production (around 1,300 to 1,400 MW), and production of modules with capacity of around 1,000 MW.
The future of solar energy depends largely on how the costs of the panels are brought down and efficiency of solar panels increased. As of now, solar PV panels use about 10 gm of polycrystalline silicon to produce 1 Wp (watt/peak) of energy. This is down from 13 gm a few years ago and this will probably keep coming down further. The European Union (EU) has actually set a target of polysilicon consumption below 5, 3, and 2 g/Wp in the short, medium and long term respectively.
| Solar PV: Efficiency & Manufacturing Cost | ||||
| Sl. No. | Technology type | Current conversion efficiency (%) | Cost of manufacture (US$ per W) | |
| 1 | Crystalline | Monocrystalline | 17-23 | 2.4 |
| Polycrystalline | 15-18 | 2.15 | ||
| 2 | Thin films | Amorphous silicon | 6.0 | 1.35 |
| Tandem microcrystalline | 8.5 | 1.35 | ||
| CdTe | 11 | 1.15 | ||
| CIGS | 12 | 1.75 | ||
| Source: ISA-NMCC 2008 Annual Research Report. | ||||
Technologies involved
Solar cells are commonly made from polycrystalline silicon or polysilicon wafers. Polysilicon, which may be mono-crystalline or multi-crystalline, is manufactured from metallurgical grade silicon. Almost 90% of solar PV cells and modules at present are made using polysilicon, and this has created a huge gap in the demand and supply, pushing up its price. While it used to cost $20 per kg in 2001, prices have jumped to over $50 per kg today.
With polysilicon in short supply, an alternative was found in PV cells and modules based on thin film technologies. Thin film modules are created by depositing layers of photosensitive materials on low-cost bases, called substrate, made of glass, stainless steel or plastic. Main materials used for creating thin film-based solar cells are cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), amorphous silicon and micro-amorphous silicon. Thin films use only 1% of the active material compared to crystalline silicon. Recent figures show that of the 8 GW of global PV cell manufacturing capacity in 2008, 1 GW was that of thin capacity. Two major players, First Solar and Sharp hope to have thin films with a capacity of 1 GW by 2012.
Researchers are working on newer technologies to produce PV cells with efficiency between 30 and60%. Nanotechnology is now being used to enhance efficiency of solar PV cells, as nano materials exhibit superior properties, such as high strength and flexibility and trap more energy than conventional solar PV cells. A solar expert working with Moser Baer says, “Nanotechnology will take at least five years to bring the cost of production down and efficiency higher for the solar PV products.”
Global solar PV players like Emcore Photovoltaics and Spectrolab have managed to manufacture triple junction solar cells with commercial efficiency of around 38%.
Road Ahead
The global solar PV market is expected to grow at 40% till 2010, after which it will fall to 20%. Market size as estimated in 2007 was $12.9 billion, and according to a study by the ISA and PwC, it is going to swell to $20 billion by 2010 and 32.2 billion by 2012. The good news is that the polysilicon demand–supply gap is decreasing. According to Morgan Stanley research, this will happen on increase in production capacity and more recycling of polysilicon from scrap, dust and broken wafers. According to iSuppli Corp, global production of PV cells will rise to as much as 12 GW by 2010, up from 3.5 GW in 2007. Factories capable of 1GW of annual PV production will not remain unheard of.
There has been suggestions that India should allow entrepreneurs to develop solar farms with a minimum capacity of 50 MW like Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPP). The National Solar Mission seems to have taken a leaf out of the successful German model. Predictions are that grid parity is probably possible by 2012 in nations where sunshine is plentiful and by 2018 in areas with adequate or medium sun exposure.
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written by Udit Chaudhuri, August 27, 2009
The solar programme in India is as old as the 70s, with the CSIR first identifying this as a promising field in the early 70s, the setting up of CASE - Commission for Alternate Sources of Energy at Mrs Indira Gandhi's behest in 1980, leading to the DNES - Dept of Non-conventional Sources by 1983-84 that finally got Ministry status as MNES under Narasimha Rao in 1992. Simultaneously, States set up Nodal Agencies to facilitate development, manufacture, marketing and installation of RE products and Gujarat took the lead with the establishment of GEDA about 1978-79 under the Janata Party Govt under the visionary Chairmanship of Dr Nanubhai B Amin.
A lot of good work that lead to India becoming the largest installed base in solar energy was done by these relatively non-bureaucratic departments during that era. A large number of power, thermal equipment and systems engineering companies progressively entered this field, from the mid 70s to the 80s. I was also involved in installing industrial and domestic heating about 1000 panels of solar heating panels and few scores of SPV systems. All RE systems were marketed under the SNAs' aegis and buyers, whi had to be end users, got half or more their installed cost subsidised or reimbursed according to the policies of that day, between the Central and State Govts.
Although the Public Sector doggedly stuck to their protected monopoly in SPV cells and panels, companies like CEL and BHEL took the initiative to supply panels via the Nodal Agencies to systems integrators who installed SPV-based community lighting solutions in several thousand villages in each State.
Rajiv Gandhi's Govt dealt a body blow to the RE industry, when perhaps his swish set of advisers made him slash the RE provisions in the 7th 5-yr Plan from Rs 400 Cr to just Rs 7 Cr. This put paid to all subsidised projects and murdered the market prospects of large companies, which were started with large projected demands endorsed by the licensing body, mostly the DNES and Industries Ministry. By then, SPV imports leading to phased manufacture manufacture of SPV panels were allowed. But Mr VP Singh, as Finance Minister sat over all foreign collaboration files citing the need to save forex.
The Rajiv Gandhi Govt. further shot down the silicon foundry proposal of IPCL-hemlock, asserting that ther was enough silicon facility between Mettur Industries and Semiconductor Complex Ltd of Chandigarh, the latetr of which was gutted in a fire before commissioning and never re-commissioned.
The Janata Dal Govt coming to power again agreed on private sector importing solar cells and pahsing the manufacture of domestic panels but his refusal to involve the IMF etc again starved the economy of foreign exchange and imports, again banning the import or manufacture of solar cells by the private sector. Hence a company like Tata BP Solar had to hand its know-how and import sources to BHEL and in exchange receive priority allotted deliveries of panels. This put severe restrictions on the industry and business opportunities.
Other companies are still reeling under losses inflicted by these whims to this date.
Meanwhile it took the clout and massive resources of the Tatas to continue to develop the 'balance of systems' including charge and load regulators, batteries, suitable lamps, fans, invertors, etc as needed to complete a SPV power system. They insisted on the highest quality standards and delivered only complete systems, initially under a 5-year comprehensive warranty. This inspired confidence and saw sustsined growth, while its competitors were veritably wiped out.
Others like Shell, Siemens, GE, Philips, National and several others have entered the field but lack the long-term perspective, perseverance and commitment to survive this market. However, we see some progress by smaller players like SELCO, Solite, Solkar and few others who rely on Chinese/East Asian imports of SPV panels.
Amorphous silicon offers tremendous opportunity to SMEs and MSMEs by being ready-made in large quantities, amenable to scaling, shadow-tolerance and although of a lower efficiency, available at half the cost per Wp compared to crystalline silicon. Small manufacturers can import these 'a-Si glass' sheets, cut them according to the desired rated voltage and current, frame and connect them as finished panels without any sophisticated production facilities.
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