On the day the full cabinet was finally announced, the Sensex regained the 14,000 mark. What further proof do you want that our business cycles are driven more by sentiment than anything else?
For the past month or so there has been a gradual uplifting of the gloom around us. While no one was willing to confirm that things had changed, people have started getting that ever so slightly hopeful tone in their voices and their actions. Budgets were being made, plans and proposals were being asked for, and while there was a certain jitteriness to these actions, the sense that the worst was over was somehow seeping through.
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| Krishna Kumar |
And then came the election results and clear verdict in favor of the UPA. The Sensex went into a mini bull run of about 2,000 points to cross 14,000, and the so-called pundits got busy calculating when the it would hit 20,000 and even a lakh!
So, is this the end of the bad times? Is this really a revival?
You just need to look at what happened immediately after the election results were out to get a sense of what reality is all about. It took eleven days to finalize the names of ministers, simply because there were too many asking for berths. And in all those days, the Sensex went up and down like a seesaw under the influence of banshees. And on the day the full cabinet was finally announced, the Sensex regained the 14,000 mark. What further proof do you want that our business cycles are driven more by sentiment than anything else?
So, for recovery and revival to happen, sentiment has to continue to be positive. Forget performance and facts.
On a unrelated note, how did every one, the pollsters, the parties, the media, get their election projections so horribly wrong?
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